Read free online THE BURNING EDGE: TRAVELS THROUGH IRRADIATED BELARUS (English Edition) cultural studies

PDF/EPUB Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ☆ batdongsanhoian.co

The international bestsellerA manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world Read it Daniel Kahneman author of Thinking Fast and SlowWhat if we could improve our ability to predict the future?Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold Whether buying a new house or changing job designing a new product or getting married our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out The problem is were not very good at itIn a landmark twenty year study Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork Tetlocks latest project an unprecedented government funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions has since shown that there are however some people with real demonstrable foresight These are ordinary people from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average They are superforecastersIn Superforecasting Tetlock and his co author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit whether in business in international affairs or in everyday lifeThe techniues and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring In other words to everyone EconomistA terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely readHighly recommendedIndependentThe best thing I have read on predictionsSuperforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity The Times The international bestsellerA manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world Read it Daniel Kahneman author of Thinking Fast and SlowWhat if we could improve our ability to predict the future?Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold Whether buying a new house or changing job designing a new product or getting married our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out The problem is were not very good at itIn a landmark twenty year study Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork Tetlocks latest project an unprecedented government funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions has since shown that there are however some people with real demonstrable foresight These are ordinary people from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average They are superforecastersIn Superforecasting Tetlock and his co author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit whether in business in international affairs or in everyday lifeThe techniues and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring In other words to everyone EconomistA terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely readHighly recommendedIndependentThe best thing I have read on predictionsSuperforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity The Times The international bestsellerA manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world Read it Daniel Kahneman author of Thinking Fast and SlowWhat if we could improve our ability to predict the future?Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold Whether buying a new house or changing job designing a new product or getting married our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out The problem is were not very good at itIn a landmark twenty year study Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork Tetlocks latest project an unprecedented government funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions has since shown that there are however some people with real demonstrable foresight These are ordinary people from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average They are superforecastersIn Superforecasting Tetlock and his co author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit whether in business in international affairs or in everyday lifeThe techniues and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring In other words to everyone EconomistA terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely readHighly recommendedIndependentThe best thing I have read on predictionsSuperforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity The Times